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Hope is not Irrational

  • Aug. 4th, 2007 at 3:13 AM
Brad @ Burning Man
Yesterday I mentioned the story of Johnny Dahlquist, the character in Robert Heinlein's 1948 short story "The Long Watch" who, when given the order to prepare for nuclear war, decided instead to use his technical skills to disable the nukes that his superior officers were (it turned out) planning on using for a global coup d'etat. I gave it as an example of something I like to see in my fiction, namely hope, specifically the hope that any ordinary person in the right place at the right time can reasonably hope to do the right thing when it really matters. Maybe you think that's unrealistic of me, but I think that's backwards. I can't stand the fiction of despair because, frankly, that's not how the world really works.

Hope is not irrational. For example, the reason that you and I are having this conversation is that there really were, not in fiction but in reality, more than three Johnny Dahlquists. We did not survive the Cold War without a global nuclear exchange by accident or by luck or by clever strategy. We survived the Cold War because every time nuclear war was about to start, one or more of the people, not necessarily at the top of the military command chain but sometimes even at the bottom said, "No."

During the Cuban Missile Crisis, there came a point at which a panicky President Kennedy decided (not unreasonably) that he needed an update on the launch readiness of the Russian missiles in Cuba, and needed it faster than a U2 spy plane could bring it back. So a flight of US fighter jets was dispatched to quickly overfly the missile sites and report back. What he didn't know at the time, what nobody knew, was that the Russian officers on site were told that there was one and only one circumstance where they were authorized to launch on their own, rather than waiting for orders from Moscow. Their standing orders anticipated that the only circumstance under which the US would actually attack a Russian missile site would be if World War III had already begun; if they saw American fighter planes approaching their position, they were under orders to launch at once rather than risk having their retaliatory strike capability bombed away from them. The Russian officer on site saw the American fighters approaching and began the launch sequence. His Cuban Army liaison shot him to death rather than let him start WW III.

Some years after that, the senior missile control officer for the whole Soviet Union was on duty late one night when the whole Russian early-warning radar system lit up with tracks that could not possibly be anything other than an entire swarm of US nuclear bombers crossing into Russia, heading towards every radar position. Standing orders said that if multiple radars agreed, and he could not prove that they were in error through visual confirmation in less time than it would take the bombers to wipe out his radar stations, he was to initiate a total nation-wide launch of every missile aimed at the US and Europe. It being the middle of the night, he knew there was no way to get visual verification. So instead, he checked the newspapers, concluded on his own authority that this was an unlikely day for the Americans to attack because tensions were fairly low, and decided to risk not giving the launch order. When his KGB political officer attempted to countermand that order, he ordered his troops to hold the KGB officer at gunpoint and shoot him if he approached the command console. That he turned out to be right that it was a software glitch didn't save his career, he was still demoted for pulling a gun on a political officer and retired to relative obscurity many years later.

Some years after that, before the US was officially in the Vietnam War, US pilots were sent along with American bomber aircraft that we gave the South Vietnamese. Our pilots were supposed to train the Vietnamese to run bombing missions against North Vietnam. The North Vietnamese had been given Russian fighter jets and trained to intercept and shoot down those bombers. But both sides' trainers ran into so many problems training their Vietnamese clients that they gave up and quietly flew the missions themselves. The pilots for both sides caught each other at this, almost immediately. Both sides' pilots had long before been given standing orders: if in any combat zone they came under fire from the other side's aircraft, they were to report that immediately to their superiors, as it may have been the beginning of World War III. What we found out, when the pilots for both sides admitted this to reporters only a few years back, was that both sides' pilots discussed this among themselves, and independently of each other both sides concluded that they were all going to disobey that order, for fear that someone above them in the chain of command would give the launch orders for a nuclear war.

In The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, one of Heinlein's characters made the point that Robert Anton Wilson and Robert Shea would later make in Illuminatus, and that is that ultimately, all chains of command are illusions. Every order that is given ends up in the hands of a self-aware moral individual with his or her own responsibility to decide whether or not that order is the right thing to do. Yes, some people abdicate their moral responsibilities and do what they're told, sometimes even whole armies of them. If such things never happened, then Hitler's army wouldn't have obeyed the order to march in to Czechoslovakia and Bush's army would never have obeyed the order to march into Iraq. Nevertheless, our history and our economy and everything about our lives would be much, much worse than it is if the world and its history were not literally full of people who decide every day, no matter what they were told or what the people around them are doing, to do the right thing simply because it's the right thing to do.

And any auther whose fiction does not reflect this fundamental reality misunderstands the human race so severely that I find it flatly unreadable. Any book whose characters are all greedy selfish monsters or morally bankrupt obedient automatons is simply too unrealistic to hold my attention.

Comments

[info]nancylebov wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 08:29 am (UTC)
Thank you for the stories of how WWIII didn't happen. I'm especially fond of the third story--it's the hyper-rationality needed to win at prisoner's dilemma in action in the real world.

The reason for hope I hang onto is that there's a stable peace between England, France, and Germany. It's so stable that I seem to be the only one who notices that it's strikingly different from pre-WWII history. It suggests that "ancient hatreds" aren't the only possibility. I don't know how much of it is the result of individual decisions under pressure and how much is accumulated good sense.

Are there similar stories of people heading off conventional wars, or does it take nukes to raise the stakes high enough? Or possibly, does it take nukes to bring the crucial decisions that low in the chain of command?
[info]delphinios wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 09:40 am (UTC)
Every order that is given ends up in the hands of a self-aware moral individual with his or her own responsibility to decide whether or not that order is the right thing to do.

Which is why I believe there must *always* be a 'Man in the Loop' (and more then a few) no matter how mechanized or automated warfare becomes.
[info]dreamking00 wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 01:04 pm (UTC)
And any auther whose fiction does not reflect this fundamental reality misunderstands the human race so severely that I find it flatly unreadable. Any book whose characters are all greedy selfish monsters or morally bankrupt obedient automatons is simply too unrealistic to hold my attention.

Examples, off the cuff? Also, I'm finally getting around to reading The Speed of Dark.
[info]bradhicks wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 04:00 pm (UTC)
Well, almost everything by Harlan Ellison comes to mind.
[info]eggshellhammer wrote:
Aug. 5th, 2007 12:56 am (UTC)
To be fair, even in I Have No Mouth And I Must Scream, a man sacrifices all hope of escape to save his companions from torment.
[info]bradhicks wrote:
Aug. 5th, 2007 06:50 pm (UTC)
And there's the hint at the end of "Repent, Harlequin, Said the Ticktockman" that Harlequin's rebellion may not have been totally in vain, too. I did say "most."
[info]satyrblade wrote:
Aug. 7th, 2007 01:31 am (UTC)
Hmmmm... I don't get that impression from Ellison at all. He's very much the frustrated idealist, but his fiction reflects as much.
[info]xodiac wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 01:48 pm (UTC)
Any book whose characters are all greedy selfish monsters or morally bankrupt obedient automatons is simply too unrealistic to hold my attention.

Agreed. Which is why I don't like cyberpunk much. I used to, especially Shadowrun novels with their addition of magic to the genre, but when I realized every person, every corporation, every entity but the main characters (and sometimes even they) were greedy selfish bastards who'd betray and ruin anything good if it gave them any kind of temporary personal advantage... well, what's the point?

I once read an internet fiction (or started to read it, anyway) where the character was essentially a slave to his pimp, hated it but at the same time was afraid of trying for freedom. I stopped reading because there was no hope in the story. There was no way anything would change; the main character was too downtrodden. Again, what's the point?

A prime ingredient of any story is hope. It doesn't have to pan out, but for most of the book there should be the *potential* that things would still come out okay, that the good guys might win. If the setting and characters are set up so it's guaranteed the rich will stomp all over the poor with no consequences, or that the world will blow up to accompanying maniacal laughter, or whatever... if that's as good as done, then there's no point in reading it.
[info]nancylebov wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 02:00 pm (UTC)
I think there's more fiction like you describe--characters who either can't imagine making anything better or characters who are too afraid to try (usually the former)--than either of the two types Brad listed.
[info]netaria wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 06:07 pm (UTC)
You might enjoy Neal Stephenson's Snow Crash and Diamond Age, as it is filled with many realistic characters. Infact even the "bad guys" usually have a more legitimate view point and are rarely out for themselves solely. (Particularly in Diamond Age.)

If you haven't read him, I highly rec his works. :)
[info]tropism wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 08:07 pm (UTC)
Yes!

For the most part, I've disliked every cyberpunk book I've read, 'cause it's all full of dystopias with no hope of anything else. Then someone persuaded me to read Snow Crash, and now I'm reading Diamond Age - and it's so fucking refreshing to find something in this kind of setting (which I do so dearly love) that hasn't been poisoned by a kind of universal despair.
[info]dmlaenker wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 07:53 pm (UTC)
The thing is, tho, as a pessimist, I tend to understand the pessimism. I enjoyed Watchmen, for instance, because it's hard not to relate to a world where "nothing ever ends".

What bothers me about Shadowrun and a lot of other cyberpunk is a deep presentism: SR1 thru SR3 imagined the Japanese in power forever, and SR4 is sort of suddenly reimagining the Chinese being in power forever.
[info]tormentedartist wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 02:29 pm (UTC)
Thank you. This is the best post that I've ever read here. So I'm linking to it.
[info]satyrblade wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 03:04 pm (UTC)
Agreed. Personally, I find stories that deny all forms of hope or beauty to be more reflections of the author's neurosis than reflections of earthly reality or the human condition. Although the 20th-century backlash against the saccharine falsity and preachienss of Victorian-era art was an essential step in artistic integrity, that rebellion became so enraptured by its opposite - an obsession with ugliness, nihilism and pain - that it became just as trite and just as false. The tagline of my Deliria books - "Hope is the bravest rebellion" - came out of a discussion on just this subject: the reality of hope as an essential element of human existence. Without beauty, hope and love we literally would not exist. (So fuck you, Neil LaBute!)
[info]hairyfigment wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 04:50 pm (UTC)
he was still demoted for pulling a gun on a political officer and retired to relative obscurity many years later.

I celebrate Petrov Day on September 26 for this reason.
[info]fizzyland wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 05:41 pm (UTC)
Well said sir, well said.

And my own study of history shows that again and again - darkness comes and we find a way out of it.
[info]roninspoon wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 05:44 pm (UTC)
What do you make of Stephen R. Donaldson? The Covenant series and especially the Gap series are full of miserable characters who have few if any redeemable qualities other than the capacity to do the right thing at least once in their life.
[info]collie13 wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 06:00 pm (UTC)
The Covenant series? Please. Just shoot the bastard protagonist (not hero), and put him out of our misery! ;-p
[info]bradhicks wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 10:25 pm (UTC)
Oh, dear gods, don't even get me started. You know, I finished that first trilogy, made myself finish it because so many people were telling me how good it was. I kept thinking that with all that horse crap there had to be a pony in there somewhere. Uh, no. Bleagh.
[info]nancylebov wrote:
Aug. 5th, 2007 10:50 am (UTC)
There's a pony. It's the setting, but you have to ignore the main character to appreciate it.
[info]neowiccan wrote:
Aug. 5th, 2007 02:45 pm (UTC)
agreed.
i LOVED The Land.
i just wanted covenant deaddeaddead.
khairete
suz
[info]hairyfigment wrote:
Aug. 5th, 2007 03:51 pm (UTC)
You should love the sequels, then. :)
[info]neowiccan wrote:
Aug. 5th, 2007 04:25 pm (UTC)
You should love the sequels, then. :)<<

what, the second chronicles?
not so much.
or the new one with linden avery as protagonist? i started it hopefully, but it was one of the few books i put down without finishing. blegh.
i read one of a sci-fi series he did, can't remember the name right now. more of donaldson's lip-licking rape. i tossed it in disgust too.
i want to like him. anyone who can create the Land ought to be worth reading. but he can't write characters for shit. and he overuses pet words to DEATH. i mean, how many times should ANYONE be allowed to use 'roynish', which i think he made up anyway.
khairete
suz
(Anonymous) wrote:
Aug. 7th, 2007 04:16 pm (UTC)
"roynish" is arcane, not his coinage
As You Like It
http://books.google.com/books?id=ZxMlAAAAMAAJ&pg=PA76&lpg=PA76

dictionary
http://books.google.com/books?id=5dowAAAAIAAJ&pg=PA696&lpg=PA696
[info]neowiccan wrote:
Aug. 8th, 2007 10:13 am (UTC)
Re: "roynish" is arcane, not his coinage
well, thanks!
i did actually figure he didn't totally pull it out of his ass, but he's SO in love with it. one day when i'm bored i'll count how many times he uses it...i'll bet it's 30.
;) khairete
suz
[info]netaria wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 06:15 pm (UTC)
It does generally seem that we always keep ourselves from the brink. Somehow no matter what we get up to on the way there we turn away from taking that step to destroying ourselves...

I must agree, I can't stand the new media obsession with hopelessness and this debased humanity that they show off as if it's actually reality. I think what's even worse is how so many young people seem to actually buy into the image presented and do their best to shut down all their emotional connections, etc. (Particularly as a parent. If the media doesn't start to do more of a turn around I wonder what our nation's youth will be acting like by the time my daughter reaches schooling age.)

It's sad that art used to imitate reality, but now, when the art has turned so dark I notice more and more that reality is imitating art.
[info]hairyfigment wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 10:05 pm (UTC)
Mmm, see here, especially chapter 2.
[info]phillipalden wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 06:37 pm (UTC)
Beautifully said. I really do enjoy reading your posts, and I agree that hope is one of the linchpins of sanity and serenity - hope, faith and love. As a Taoist I have faith that today will be a better day than yesterday and tomorrow will be even better than today.

And today is a perfect day.
[info]ponsdorf wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 06:52 pm (UTC)
Nice post. I also prefer some element of hope in what I read.

I find it troubling that you mix fiction and reality so easily, but I reckon all that matters is that I recognize the difference. [grin] Your leap from Heinlein to Bushitler was fascinating.

And... One reason that genuine heroes are remarkable is that they are rare. You seem to be saying that legions of people do 'the right thing' and it'd be nice to have an example from real life. But then you'd have to start by defining 'the right thing' in concrete terms.

Anyway, a thought provoking piece, thanks again.
[info]tropism wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 08:11 pm (UTC)
"I find it troubling that you mix fiction and reality so easily"

...I don't understand the thought-process behind this. Fiction is an outgrowth of reality, and fiction which ignores reality is generally not very good. particularly with Science Fiction, which generally uses the 'Real World' as a starting point and extrapolates from there.
[info]ponsdorf wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 08:58 pm (UTC)
It's not all that tricky. Fantasy and Science Fiction (among other fiction genres) must be based in reality to be easily accessible to human beings.

But fiction is just that - fiction. Pulling selective elements out of real life to support one's opinions is bad enough, but drawing on selected fictional plot lines as well approaches silly, if not psychopathy.

Put another way - an author may advance ideas in a novel as a plot device that he she or she doesn't believe personally. Citing an author as a 'civilian' and citing an author's novel can be two different animals.
[info]pixxelpuss wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 09:45 pm (UTC)
I know you're using hyperbole here, but to use the term psychopathy here is totally ridiculous. I agree that citing an authors work as indicative of their actual point of view is dumb, but I don't think that Brad did that (in fact, he's recognized this fact in the past by pointing out that individuals who quote Shakespeare as saying "Kill all the lawyers" are ignoring the context). What he did was talk about what he finds interesting and inspiring, the acts of individuals (both fictional and real) who behave heroically when driven by hope. The fact that he used both fictional and real examples doesn't seem odd to me at all.
[info]ponsdorf wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 10:47 pm (UTC)
Er, uh, I only said that the way he did the leap was fascinating, not improper. I did say that I thought it troubling.

I was replying to a comment and not Brad when I mentioned psychopathy. I was talking about a broad range of disorders that even the DSM can't accurately quantify.

One element they have in common, though, is being divorced from reality in some way.

My broader point was that everyone is not a hero, although some with a distorted view of reality may consider themselves such. NOT robbing a bank is not the same as stopping a bank robbery.

Ya know, I don't find fictional characters particularly inspiring. They are words on a page and those words might be inspiring, but the distinction is of note.

Eh, different strokes for different folks.
[info]bradhicks wrote:
Aug. 5th, 2007 01:53 am (UTC)
There's a seldom-reprinted Heinlein essay on ordinary people that I agree with; I'll pull it out when I get back to my library.

Comsidering the context of this discussion is about whether or not the characters in the all-too-common literature of despair are more realistic than what I'm calling the literature of hope? I'm baffled as to how hou thought I could discuss my point without comparing the characters that I'm calling "unrealistic" to actual non-fictional human beings? To discuss whether or not fictional characters are realistic by comparing them to otjer fictional characters? Now that would have been divorced from reality, no?
[info]ponsdorf wrote:
Aug. 5th, 2007 03:38 am (UTC)
I've attempted to explain my reservations up the page. I thought I broadly agreed with you.

You're the one who went from fiction to reality and back again to make a point. I still think that's flawed logic. And I still think that heroes are fewer than to you seem to suggest.

Not much else to say other than to ask if you're using the new 'toy' to respond? If so - neato.
(no subject) - [info]bradhicks - Aug. 18th, 2007 12:04 am (UTC)
[info]ponsdorf wrote:
Aug. 18th, 2007 12:17 am (UTC)
Duh... What is your point? Just doing 'the right thing' isn't heroism in most cases. A hero goes 'above and beyond'. You and I might debate with the distinction, and I accept that as a premise.

The fellow who chooses NOT to rob a bank vs. the fellow who stops a bank robbery?
[info]bradhicks wrote:
Aug. 18th, 2007 12:05 am (UTC)
Here we go. It turns out the essay that I wanted about how common what you call "heroism" is was on the web the whole time; I was searching for it under the wrong title. Robert Heinlein, "This I Believe," 1952.
[info]pixxelpuss wrote:
Aug. 4th, 2007 07:03 pm (UTC)
This is really interesting. I was hoping you could cite some sources for your stories, though. They're a really beautiful little series of historical occurances, but I'd like to look them up further myself. Especially since my husband has turned into a bit of a nuclear history buff.
[info]nancylebov wrote:
Aug. 5th, 2007 10:54 am (UTC)
While I'm in favor of Nuremberg and such, those laws and rules obscure that it all comes down to individual judgement and ethics--doing the right thing will not always be backed up legally, even if the laws are set up to protect or require doing some of the right things.
[info]pentane wrote:
Aug. 6th, 2007 01:03 pm (UTC)
Hope may not be irrational, but the trend of piling on as much shit as you can then unwinding it all for the happy ending is seriously annoying.
[info]alienne wrote:
Aug. 6th, 2007 02:46 pm (UTC)
See, this is such a ridiculous statement on the face of it that i never know what to say when you make it. Other than, "prove it." Give me actual EXAMPLES of Ellison's "morally bankrupt" or "selfish" characters. You never seem able to do this. Now, give me examples of these reprehensible characters who don't get DESTROYED. Usually in awful ways.

I mean, really. "Delusion for a Dragon Slayer"? "On the Downhill Side"? "All the Birds Come Home to Roost"? "Basilisk"? (A SCATHING indictment of both the Vietnam war and of the people who vilified the returning veterans.) The good don't always get rewarded, in Ellison's stories, but the bad usually get punished, one way or another.

Further, stories like "Paingod", "Bright Eyes", "The Discarded", "The Wine Has Been Left Open Too Long and the Memory Has Gone Flat" , "Deathbird", and countless others are *all* about hope.

Ellison himself is bitter and satirical, and his idea of improving the human race DOES involve a fair amount of rubbing its nose in its worst elements. But the message isn't, "all humans are like this" -- the message is, "you can do BETTER, you schmuck!" As far as i can tell, far from being depressing and misanthropic, "almost all" of Ellison's fiction makes it clear that hope, love, and the possibility that people will do the right thing are really what life is worth living for -- and that there are terrible consequences for failing to acknowledge that.
[info]alienne wrote:
Aug. 6th, 2007 05:00 pm (UTC)
Whoops, this was supposed to be a reply in the Harlan Ellison thread.
[info]uniquecrash5 wrote:
Aug. 6th, 2007 05:26 pm (UTC)
I'm with Brad on this one.

"You can do BETTER, you schmuck!" isn't really what I'd call call a message of hope. It's more like a message of despair, in that people aren't doing better, methinks.
[info]alienne wrote:
Aug. 6th, 2007 06:48 pm (UTC)
Hardly. You don't bother to criticize people you think are totally hopeless.
[info]satyrblade wrote:
Aug. 7th, 2007 01:39 am (UTC)
Yes, thank you. That was what I was trying to say above, but it's been so many years since my Ellisonian power-binge(*) that I couldn't remember which stories featured which events, aside from a few favorites like "Jeffty is Five," "Paingod," "Djinn, No Chaser" (one of the most beautiful - if loopy - affirmations of love-partnership I've ever read), and most especially "Harlequin."



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* - I read most of his books in less than a year, total.